Unlisted Assets Trade Even on Weekends: Alea Research Analyzes $4.3 Billion in RWA Perpetual Futures Open Interest

Tokenized real-world asset (RWA) perpetual futures are rapidly gaining traction by simultaneously breaking through the trading time constraints of traditional finance and the barriers to accessing unlisted markets. Alea Research recently reported that the open interest in RWA perpetual futures across both DEX and CEX has expanded to $4.3 billion, marking a 15-fold increase compared to the beginning of the year. The report diagnoses that this market is absorbing demand not only for macro risk pricing during weekends and nights but also for individual investors seeking exposure to unlisted companies.

According to the report, the average daily trading volume in the U.S. stock market already exceeds $1 trillion, but core liquidity is concentrated during regular trading hours from 9:30 AM to 4 PM Eastern Time. Even the blue ocean ATS supporting night trading has only managed to process about $1 billion per day as of 2025, which is merely 0.1% of the regular trading volume. However, the nature of this demand is clear. The trend of Asia-Pacific and European investors wanting to trade U.S. stocks during their daytime has supported the night session, with recent trading volume showing that 35% originated from South Korea.

These structural limitations became even more pronounced during weekend events. Alea Research pointed out that during the U.S. airstrike on Iran on Saturday, February 28, the only market that could reflect the shock in real-time during the closed regulatory exchanges was essentially the hyper-liquid-based market. Subsequently, the trading volume on the blue ocean ATS surged fourfold on Sunday evening, and CME crude oil contract trading volume nearly doubled compared to the previous week's average. This serves as evidence that there is indeed demand to price in macro risks over the weekend.

Another pillar of RWA perpetual futures is the unlisted market. Recently, companies have been staying unlisted for an average of about 14 years, with a significant portion of the value appreciation before going public accruing to insiders and qualified investors. The report analyzed that approximately 41% of IPO revenues for companies listed between 2020 and 2023 were generated before the IPO. In such a structure, individual investors find it difficult to access promising unlisted companies like OpenAI or Anthropic. In contrast, perpetual futures on pre-IPO stocks provide price exposure to these assets without requiring qualified investor status, based on USDC (USDC) settlements, making them an alternative route.

Technically, RWA perpetual futures are synthetic contracts that do not hold the underlying assets. During regular trading hours in the U.S., the mark price is formed based on oracle prices, and the funding rate helps converge the market price to the spot. However, in intervals where the reference oracle disappears, such as after Friday's market close, prices must be discovered through their own order books. To prevent sharp fluctuations caused by thin order books and forced liquidations, TradeXYZ employs mechanisms like 'Discovery Bound.' This indicates that RWA perpetual futures are not merely high-leverage speculative products but involve sophisticated designs to maintain price discovery functions during weekends and nights.

Actual trading patterns also support this purpose. According to the report, trading volume for RWA perpetual futures surged most significantly right after the opening of the U.S. cash market, with 9% of the daily trading flow concentrated in the first hour. Simultaneously, 25% of the total trading volume occurred between 8 PM and 4 AM, when U.S. stock trading platforms are halted. Based on hyper-liquid data over the past eight weeks, 65.1% of the nominal trading volume for RWA perpetual futures occurred outside regular trading hours, with 11.5% occurring on weekends. When combining DEX and CEX, weekend trading volume drops to about 18.5% of the weekday average, but open interest remains largely unaffected. The turnover rate during weekdays was 1.23 times, while weekends were only 0.24 times, suggesting that traders are managing weekend risks while maintaining positions rather than simply engaging in short-term trades.

Price accuracy is also a key indicator of market effectiveness. The report stated that among 137 RWA perpetual futures markets, 125 maintained mark prices within 25 basis points of the oracle, with the median deviation across markets being just 3 basis points. Comparing VWAP during non-trading hours like the July 4 holiday with reopening prices revealed a median error of about 0.5%. Notably, during the Iran conflict on Saturday, the VWAP for WTI crude oil during non-trading hours was recorded at $71.64, with a difference of less than 0.9% from the CME reopening price of $72.30. After Micron's earnings announcement, night prices also moved at a level 3.3% lower than the next day's opening price but did not significantly distort the direction.

Perpetual futures on pre-IPO stocks represent a more challenging area, but some cases have provided meaningful signals. Cerebras (CBRS) formed an opening price of $290.40 on the day of listing after trading for 13 days before the IPO, with a difference of less than 2.3% from the pre-listing perpetual futures price. SpaceX (SPCX) also saw a difference of about 2.7% between the VWAP the day before listing and the actual opening price. In contrast, Quantinuum (QNT) experienced a sharp drop on the day of listing, leading to a significant deviation in closing price. The report explained that while pre-listing perpetual futures can capture the 'demand reflected in the opening price,' they cannot fully account for the selling pressure that pours in after the actual circulating volume is released. Nevertheless, the average error across five major events was +0.2%, with a median error of 2.7%.

Currently, the market leadership lies with DEX. TradeXYZ, utilizing the HIP-3 based builder model of hyper-liquid, has listed a large number of U.S. stocks, commodities, foreign exchange, and pre-IPO contracts, accounting for 56.9% of the on-chain RWA perpetual futures open interest, approximately $3.1 billion. The unregulated listing structure allows for much faster supply of new items compared to traditional exchanges. In contrast, CEX is targeting other areas with a KYC-based user base, fiat on-ramps, and a regulatory-friendly structure. Binance has stated that 73% of users of related products come from emerging markets, while Kraken, OKX, and Coinbase are pursuing strategies to absorb institutional and overseas individual investors within regulatory frameworks.

Ultimately, the essence of RWA perpetual futures lies in solving the issues of 'time' and 'accessibility' rather than tokenization itself. This product operates as an alternative price discovery mechanism and exposure tool during weekends and nights when traditional finance is closed and in unlisted markets that general investors cannot access. Alea Research believes that if regulated trading platforms expand to a 23-hour, 5-day system in the future, the premium for 24-hour trading may diminish, but the competitiveness of RWA perpetual futures will remain in weekend trading, leverage, and sectors where traditional finance cannot list products. The key indicator for assessing the sustainability of the market is 'RWA perpetual futures open interest.' If this figure is maintained, it confirms real demand; conversely, if it stagnates, the current rapid growth may only be a temporary expansion due to improved accessibility.

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