Institutions and On-chain Funds Optimistic About Changxin's Continued Surge, Except for Koreans

Original | Odaily Planet Daily ( @OdailyChina )

Author | Wenser ( @wenser2010 )

As the "first stock in domestic storage," Changxin Technology finally debuted on the STAR Market today, closing up 465.8% on its first day, with a total transaction volume exceeding 140 billion, and a total market value reaching 3.28 trillion yuan.

At the same time, it broke multiple records on its first day of listing, including being the "first tech stock with a market value exceeding 3 trillion at opening," "the top market value on the STAR Market," "the first stock with a single-day transaction volume exceeding 100 billion," and "the first new stock with a transaction volume exceeding 100 billion and a turnover rate of over 50%"—setting several historical records in A-shares.

With the dust settling on the market performance of the first day of listing, the next question arises—can Changxin's stock price continue to rise? What is its target price? Currently, there are still some differences in the market regarding this.

Debate on Changxin's Stock Price Outlook: Nomura Securities Bullish at 116 Yuan, Northeast Securities Gives a PE Range of 10-15 Times

As the "fourth largest in the world and the largest in China" storage giant, Changxin's market position is unquestionable.

According to data disclosed by Changxin in its listing press release, the company expects to achieve revenue of 110 billion to 120 billion yuan from January to June 2026, a year-on-year increase of 612.53% to 677.31%; it expects net profit attributable to the parent company to reach 50 billion to 57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2244.03% to 2544.19%. In light of this, many institutions have given their forecasts for the future.

Viewpoint 1: Nomura Securities Gives a Buy Rating, Bullish at 116 Yuan, Market Value Exceeds 7.7 Trillion Yuan

This morning, international investment bank Nomura Securities (referred to as Nomura) released a report stating that it has given Changxin (CXMT) a "buy" rating, with a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a 20 times price-to-earnings ratio, implying a potential increase of 1239.5%. This valuation is twice that of American storage giant Micron (MU), indicating that Changxin's stock price could rise about 13.4 times from its IPO price, corresponding to a market value of approximately 7.76 trillion yuan.

It is worth mentioning that in the report's title, Nomura likened the industrial value of Changxin's DRAM chips to the "pearl on the crown of China." According to its model, Changxin's revenue is expected to rapidly increase from 61.8 billion yuan in 2025 to 290.7 billion yuan in 2026, 560.8 billion yuan in 2027, and 773.3 billion yuan in 2028; Nomura also expects Changxin's net profit attributable to the parent company to gradually rise from less than 1.9 billion yuan to 130.3 billion yuan in 2026, 277.2 billion yuan in 2027, and 393.1 billion yuan in 2028. The compound annual growth rates for these two indicators are expected to be 63% for revenue and 74% for net profit.

It is noteworthy that Nomura's judgment of nearly 2.4 times the current market value is not unfounded, but based on a comprehensive assessment of capacity expansion, technological upgrades, and price increases, as well as factors related to Changxin's current product structure, storage supercycle, and the use of funds raised in the future. For more judgment logic, it is recommended to read "Thirteen Times Bullish on Changxin Technology?"

According to information from Changxin Technology's prospectus, of the 57.9 billion yuan raised in this IPO, 7.5 billion yuan will be used for upgrading the manufacturing line technology of memory wafers, 13 billion yuan will be used for upgrading core process technology for DRAM memory, and 9 billion yuan will be used for forward-looking technology research and development. The market generally believes that the last 9 billion yuan will be used for HBM research and development, which is currently the core business of memory giants like SK Hynix and Micron—AI chip high-bandwidth memory.

In other words, Changxin is not satisfied with its current main DRAM business line and is striving to expand into high-profit, high-demand sectors such as HBM.

Viewpoint 2: Northeast Securities Estimates Valuation Range Converges to 3.2-5.7 Trillion Yuan

Compared to the extremely optimistic Nomura Securities, Northeast Securities provides a relatively conservative bullish range, but there is still more than 42% upside potential compared to the current market value.

To provide a reasonable valuation for Changxin Technology, Northeast Securities has given market value references from the following three perspectives:

• Relative Valuation Perspective Based on Market Share, using the US stock market as a valuation reference, by comparing and analyzing the market shares of Micron Technology, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, SanDisk, and other companies in the DRAM and NAND markets, and performing different business market value splits, considering Changxin's future market share, the target market value is 3.49 trillion yuan.
• Profitability Split Perspective, by breaking down Changxin Technology's historical revenue cost structure, using price and capacity as core variables to predict profits for the next two years, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 284.8 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to a target market value of 2.85-4.27 trillion yuan at a 10-15 times PE.
• Unit Capacity Market Value Perspective, calculating the unit capacity market value of overseas storage listed companies in the DRAM business and based on this, calculating a target market value of 3.22-3.99 trillion yuan.

For detailed calculations and reasoning processes, it is recommended to read "The Birth of the New 'Stock King' in A-shares, How to Reasonably Value Changxin?".

Viewpoint 3: Multiple ETF Funds Warn That Changxin's ETF Net Value May Deviate from IOPV on the First Day of Listing

This morning, on the eve of Changxin Technology's listing, multiple ETF fund managers, including Huaxia Fund and Harvest Fund, issued warning announcements, stating that some ETFs under their management participated in the new share subscription of Changxin Technology and valued it at the issue price, while the ETF's fund share reference net value (IOPV) only includes the issue price of Changxin Technology and does not account for its market price fluctuations. Therefore, the IOPV of Changxin Technology's ETF on the first day of listing may differ from the fund share net value, and investors should pay attention to related investment risks.

In this regard, it was learned from a certain ETF fund manager that currently, ETF new share subscriptions by fund companies generally participate together with active equity funds. The IOPV of the ETF is strictly calculated according to the PCF list, and newly listed stocks and other restricted non-component stocks are not included. The significant rise in Changxin Technology's stock price on the first day of listing will cause the actual fund share net value of the participating ETFs to be slightly higher than the IOPV, which indeed presents a deviation. In this case, potential arbitrage strategies may include buying ETFs while hedging with derivatives, retaining only the excess exposure from the deviation.

In simpler terms, the IOPV (reference net value) that investors see is calculated based on Changxin's issue price of 8.66 yuan, but the actual fund net value is calculated based on the market price, so the IOPV will severely "underestimate" the true value of the fund, appearing as a discount. Essentially, this is because Changxin's opening price surged, but the investment system display interface has a delay, preventing investors from buying ETFs at high prices due to market fluctuations, thus avoiding investment losses.

Viewpoint 4: Analysts Believe Changxin's Surge on Listing Still Difficult to Change Global DRAM Shortage Status

Today, Milk Road AI analyst Melvin published an analysis regarding the surge in Changxin Technology's stock price.

He stated that in less than a year, Changxin's global DRAM market share has increased from less than 4% to about 7.7%-8%, with revenue in the first quarter of this year growing 719% year-on-year to 50.8 billion yuan. This growth is mainly due to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron shifting more capacity to AI server storage (especially HBM), leading to a supply gap in the traditional DDR5 and LPDDR5 markets, allowing Changxin to fill the demand for mid-to-low-end DRAM.

However, Changxin's current production capacity is far from meeting global demand, with its monthly wafer production capacity at about 290,000-320,000 pieces, lower than Samsung's approximately 630,000 pieces and SK Hynix's approximately 500,000 pieces. Additionally, the US export restrictions on advanced lithography equipment are also limiting Changxin's further expansion speed.

He believes that Changxin will still find it difficult to enter the HBM market in the short term, and thus will not change the supply-demand pattern of AI storage. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will still maintain an advantage in high-profit products such as HBM, server DRAM, and LPDDR5X, and the global storage shortage cycle may continue.

In straightforward terms, this analyst believes that Changxin's surge upon listing will not directly translate into a linear increase in market share or a surge in supply in the storage industry, providing a relatively neutral expectation for market value and price performance based on rational expectations.

Viewpoint 5: On-chain Long-Short Divergence, US and China Addresses Bullish, Korean Addresses Bearish

Aside from institutions and analysts, the on-chain long-short divergence for Changxin Technology before its listing is also quite pronounced.

According to HyperInsight monitoring, on the eve of Changxin Technology's listing, wallets attributable to Changxin Technology on Hyperliquid showed: US, Hong Kong, and mainland China wallets were generally bullish, while Korean labeled wallets became the main short sellers in this sample.

Among them, Korean wallets held about 760,000 USD in short positions, with the scale of short positions about 38 times that of long positions; Taiwanese labeled wallets were also bearish, with a net short of about 329,000 USD.

Bullish Side:

• US labeled wallets held 1.6 million USD in long positions and 345,000 USD in short positions, with a net long of about 1.255 million USD;
• Hong Kong labeled wallets held 1.3 million USD in long positions and 431,000 USD in short positions, with a net long of about 869,000 USD;
• Mainland China labeled wallets held only 83,000 USD in long positions and 16,000 USD in short positions, with a net long of about 67,000 USD.

If we assume that the 760,000 USD short position in Korean labeled wallets was all opened before the market opened, at a uniform opening price of 6.48 USD, and there were no adjustments thereafter, and all were calculated at 1x leverage, the theoretical floating loss on the short position would be about 48,500 USD, with a loss rate of about 6.4%. Considering today's closing data, the bulls still returned home with full loads.

Viewpoint 6: Expectations for Changxin's Rise to Continue for Several Days, Low Circulation and High Market Value Will Continue to Trigger FOMO

Aside from the above information, mainstream views in the crypto market still hold a certain degree of confidence in Changxin Storage's subsequent rise.

Their main points include:

First, Changxin's stock circulation share is currently only 6.63%, highly similar to the initial performance of SpaceX (SPCX);

Second, the memory supercycle remains the main theme of the capital market, coupled with SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Micron Technology, and other memory manufacturers continuously expanding production and promoting chip cooperation and new factory construction, and analysts expect SK Hynix's second-quarter financial report performance to far exceed market expectations, which directly drives bullish sentiment for Changxin;

Third, Changxin Technology's unique position as the "leading stock in the domestic storage industry" has made it a highly watched speculative target in A-shares and multiple capital markets, combined with the previous "A-share premium effect," a 15-20 times price-to-earnings ratio expectation is not unrealistic;

Fourth, although there are "rumors" claiming that brokerages have internally issued documents prohibiting speculation on Changxin, the market performance shows that institutions maintain a certain restraint while still paying close attention, indicating that there is still institutional buying power for Changxin in the future, thus reserving some momentum for subsequent rises.

Finally, as a side note, according to Bloomberg Billionaires Index data, since Changxin's listing, the wealth of its founder Zhu Yiming's family has soared nearly 300%, reaching 13.9 billion USD. Currently, he is preparing to distribute 40% of this as bonuses to employees. This move may be an attempt to emulate SK Hynix's practice of distributing 10% of annual net profits to all employees, which may also delay the pace of equity realization to some extent.

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