Week 10 On-chain Data: A new support level is starting to take shape, with institutions beginning to explore tentative purchases?

Original Article Title: "A New Support Level Is Taking Shape, Are Institutions Beginning to Dip Their Toes In? | WTR 3.17"

Original Source: WTR Research Institute

Weekly Recap

For the week of March 10th to March 17th, Bitcoin reached a high near $85,309 and a low near $77,459, with a fluctuation range of approximately 11.36%.

Looking at the on-chain distribution chart, there was significant volume around $78,557, indicating a certain level of support or resistance.

• Analysis:

1. 1.63 million coins around 60,000-68,000;

2. 2.18 million coins around 90,000-100,000;

• The probability of not breaking below 75,000 to 79,000 in the short term is 60%;

• The probability of not breaking above 92,000 to 87,000 in the short term is 60%.

Key News Highlights

Economic News

1. This week is Central Bank Super Week, with the Fed/Japan/UK/Swiss/Swedish central banks sequentially announcing interest rate decisions.

2. The Fed, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England are highly likely to maintain interest rates.

3. US February retail sales saw a 0.2% monthly increase, lower than the expected 0.6%.

4. March New York Fed manufacturing index was -20, well below the expected -0.75.

5. March US consumer confidence dropped to a near two-and-a-half-year low.

6. Economists estimate a 25% chance of a US economic recession, double the normal level.

7. US dollar circulation has reached $21.6 trillion, nearing the highest level in April 2022.

8. US M2 money supply grew 3.9% year-on-year in January, the fastest pace in 30 months.

Capital Markets:

1. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices have seen four consecutive weeks of decline.

2. The market expects the Fed to take a dovish stance.

3. UBS raises gold price target to $3200.

Crypto Ecosystem News

1. On March 17, the cryptocurrency fear and greed index was at 32, maintaining a "fear" status, with the previous week's average at 20 (extreme fear).

2. Over the past week, the BTC whale group accumulated over 60,000 BTC.

3. US spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $8.299 billion and $1.899 billion respectively last week.

Key Events:

1. FalconX completes the first CME bulk Solana futures trade, paving the way for a potential spot ETF.

2. Circle's Solana chain stablecoin volume has reached around $10 billion by 2025.

3. The total market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 0.91% in the past week, reaching $2,293.34 billion.

Analyst Insights:

1. Analyst Timothy Peterson predicts that BTC is likely to hit $126,000 by June 1st.

2. 10x Research believes BTC may repeat the 2024 pattern, entering a long consolidation phase after reaching a new high.

3. Bitfinex analysts point out that the $72,000 to $73,000 range is a key support level for BTC.

4. Analysts generally believe that the BTC bull market cycle is not yet over.

5. The Governor of the Bank of France warns that Trump's embrace of cryptocurrency could trigger another financial crisis.

6. The Bank of Korea explicitly stated that it has never considered including BTC in its foreign exchange reserves and holds a negative stance.

· Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

· Mid-term Exploration: Used to analyze which stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what circumstances we will face

· Short-Term Observation: Used to analyze the short-term market condition; as well as the appearance of certain trends and the likelihood of a specific event under certain conditions

Long-Term Insight:

• On-Chain Supply Distribution

• Heavy Sell Pressure and Short-Term Holder Supply

• Crypto ETF Fund Flows

• Dormant Whale Cohort

(Chart below On-Chain Supply Distribution)

The largest concentration of supply is seen in the $80,000-$100,000 range, forming the current major support level;

There is also early supply concentration in the $30,000-$60,000 range, representing long-term holders.

The current price retracement to the main supply concentration zone indicates the market is testing support strength;

If the $80,000 support holds, it may complete a new round of accumulation before forming a base for an upward move;

(Chart below Heavy Sell Pressure and Short-Term Holder Supply)

· Short-Term Holder Supply (orange area) saw a significant increase at the beginning of 2025, followed by a retreat

· Heavy Sell Pressure remains relatively low, with no significant selling pressure.

(Chart below Crypto ETF Fund Flows)

In March 2025, there were multiple large-scale net outflows (significant downward red bars), leading to a continued price decline

Recently, the total ETF holdings (yellow line) have shown a significant inflection point, transitioning from a decline to a slight increase, indicating initial external fund inflows for testing the waters.

• Large-scale outflows from ETFs transitioning to initial inflows indicate institutional investors are slowly shifting from profit-taking or risk aversion to preliminary exploratory buying.

• Some long-term holders (heavyweight investors) overall remain stable, with no signs of panic selling.

• New Address and Active Address

• Honey Orange Exchange Net Inflow

• Auntie Exchange Net Inflow

• High-Weight Dumping

• Global Buying Power Status

• Stablecoin Exchange Net Inflow

• Off-chain Exchange Data

Derivative Rating:

· Risk Factor is in the red zone, Derivative Risk is increasing.

(See Derivative Risk Factor chart below)

· Last week's price touched a short-term bottom, and the Risk Factor also touched the green zone. The current price has seen a slight rebound, but the Derivative Factor has returned to the red zone.

· It is anticipated that this week the price will continue to range-bound, leading to liquidation in derivatives.

(See Options Intent-to-Trade Ratio chart below)

· Put options ratio has slightly increased, staying in the middle, with trading volume at a moderate level.

(See Derivative Trading Volume chart below)

· Derivative trading volume remains low.

(See Options Implied Volatility chart below)

· Options implied volatility has experienced rapid fluctuations in the short term.

· Sentiment Rating: Neutral

(See Profit-Loss Transfer Quantity chart below)

· The following analysis is only for BTC. Market optimism and fear sentiment are both at low levels, and the current lower price has not yet triggered substantial market panic selling.

· With a continuous lack of buying power in the market, the expectation leans more toward ranging movements.

(Chart Below: New Addresses and Active Addresses)

· New active addresses are at the median.

Spot Market and Selling Pressure Structure Rating:

· BTC is in a state of large outflow accumulation, ETH has a small outflow.

(Chart Below: Honey Orange Exchange Net Inflow)

· BTC is in a state of large outflow accumulation.

(Chart Below: ETC Exchange Net Inflow)

· ETH has a small outflow.

(Chart Below: High Whale Selling Pressure)

· Currently, there is no high whale selling pressure participation.

Buy Pressure Rating:

· Global buy pressure is in a state of erosion, stablecoin buy pressure has slightly eroded.

(Chart Below: Global Buy Pressure Status)

· Current buy pressure is in a state of erosion.

(Chart Below: USDT Exchange Net Inflow)

· Stablecoin buy pressure has slightly eroded.

Off-chain Transaction Data Rating:

· At 75000, there is buying interest;

· At 86000, there is selling interest.

(Below is Coinbase On-chain Data)

· Willing to buy around 70000-75000 price range;

· Willing to sell around 90000 price range.

(Below is Binance On-chain Data)

· Willing to buy around 70000-75000 price range;

· Willing to sell around 86000-90000 price range.

(Below is Bitfinex On-chain Data)

· Willing to buy around 70000-75000 price range;

· Willing to sell around 86000 price range.

Weekly Summary:

News Summary:

The U.S. dollar's circulation has reached $21.6 trillion (approaching a historical high), with M2 growing by 3.9% year-on-year (the fastest in 30 months), indicating that market liquidity is actually very abundant, even slightly excessive.

This disproves the current narrative of liquidity scarcity in the market.

So why is the capital market still underperforming?

The possible core reasons are:

· Weak economic fundamentals: Manufacturing index -20, consumer confidence decline, 25% recession risk.

· Decline in risk appetite: Capital is flowing into safe-haven assets like gold (already hit $3000).

Due to the above reasons, despite a large amount of liquidity, it has not been evenly distributed, instead being concentrated in certain assets.

Currently, the market is waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. There is a lag in liquidity effects, and it is expected that after clear policy signals, capital will be reallocated in a specific order (safe-haven assets → stock market → high-risk assets).