Oscar Awards Preview: Who Are the Whales in the Prediction Markets Betting On?
Original Title: "Oscar Awards Preview: Who Are the Big Players in the Prediction Market Betting On?"
Original Author: Asher, Odaily Planet Daily
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony for the year 2026 will be held on March 15. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are heating up.
Beyond the predictions of traditional media, film critics, and fans, the crypto prediction market is also providing a set of answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who are the top contenders for this year's Oscars in each major category?
Next, Odaily Planet Daily will, based on the latest market data from Polymarket, systematically review the winning odds for each award. At the same time, we will analyze the betting positions of the top addresses holding relevant event positions to identify potential trading opportunities.
Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Leads Temporarily with a 76% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, with a trading volume of over $29 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.
Currently, in the Best Picture category, "One Battle After Another" is temporarily in the lead with a 75% real-time probability, while Sinners ranks second with a probability of 20%.
· Address Holding Analysis
Address Holding YES for "One Battle After Another" First: 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397, this address has a high win rate of 89.7%, with an average price of 54.8 cents for holding YES for "One Battle After Another".
Address Holding Only for "One Battle After Another" Single Event: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d, this address bought nearly 10,000 YES positions for "One Battle After Another" at an average price of 74 cents five days ago and currently only holds positions for the single event of "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.
Best Actor Film Award: Michael B. Jordan Currently Leads with 57% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, with a trading volume of nearly $7 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.
Currently, in the Best Actor Film Award category, Michael B. Jordan leads with a 57% real-time probability, followed by Timothée Chalamet in second place with a probability of 34%.
It is worth mentioning that until the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet had consistently held the top spot in terms of winning probability, peaking at an 80% chance.
· Holdings Address Analysis
Michael B. Jordan's YES Top Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, with a win rate of only 48% and a historical P&L of -$200,000.
Michael B. Jordan's NO Top Address: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b, with a win rate of 53% and a historical P&L of $172,000.
Timothée Chalamet's YES Top Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also Michael B. Jordan's YES Top Address. This address shows a bet placed on either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet winning the Best Actor Award.
Timothée Chalamet's NO Top Address: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344, with a high win rate of 63% and a historical P&L of $2.82 million.
Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Currently Leading with 91% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, with a trading volume of nearly $5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.
Currently, in the Best Director Award category, Paul Thomas Anderson is leading with a 94% real-time probability, making this award almost a foregone conclusion, or a "yield farm."
· Holder Address Analysis
Paul Thomas Anderson Holder YES First Address: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4, with a win rate of up to 83.6%. The average price for Paul Thomas Anderson Holder YES is 93 cents.
Best Actress Film Award: Jessie Buckley Currently Leading with 97% Real-Time Odds
Polymarket Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, with a trading volume of over $1.5 million;
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.
Currently, in the Best Actress Film Award category, Jessie Buckley is leading with 97% real-time probability, making this award almost a foregone conclusion, or a "yield farm."
Other Popular Awards
Furthermore, other awards with high discussion volume are:
1. Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan is currently leading with 52% real-time odds; Teyana Taylor is in second place with a 26% probability; Wunmi Mosaku is in third place with a 21% probability.
II. Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn is currently in first place with a real-time odds of 73%; Stellan Skarsgård is in second place with a probability of 19%; Delroy Lindo is in third place with a probability of 7%.
III. Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), One Battle After Another is currently in first place with a real-time odds of 73%; Sinners is in second place with a probability of 20%.
IV. Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), Sinners is currently in first place with a real-time odds of 96%, also known as "The Financial Bureau".
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