Intense Bull-Bear Battle, Bitcoin Revisiting "Golden Pocket"?

Original Title: Intense Battle Between Longs and Shorts, Bitcoin Revisits "Goldilocks Zone"?

Original Author: Bitpush News Mary Liu

After experiencing several days of heart-pounding volatility, risky assets saw a reversal overnight.

According to Bitpush data, in the past 24 hours, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded from a daily low of $81,500 to above $88,000, with an intraday gain of nearly 10%. At the same time, the three major stock indexes narrowed their losses, with the Nasdaq closing down by 0.35%.

Market Sentiment and the "Tug of War" in the Macro Economy

In the recent tight market, Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $78,000 on February 21 to $95,000, then fell back to around $81,000. The battle between longs and shorts has left the market direction unclear. Despite Trump's "pro-crypto" stance briefly boosting market confidence, its impact was short-lived and failed to reverse the overall market's weakness. The looming macroeconomic risks remain a "Sword of Damocles" hanging over the market.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes that the Bitcoin market may continue to linger in a downturn until there is a substantial improvement in U.S. market sentiment. Amid intertwined factors such as unclear regulatory policies, a complex and changing macroeconomic environment, and fluctuating investor sentiment, whether Bitcoin can maintain its high-level operation in the long term remains uncertain. Until stronger market catalysts emerge, Bitcoin may continue to consolidate within a wide range. Investors need to closely monitor market trends to capture key signals.

After Losing the $90,000 Mark, Bulls Face a Stern Challenge

Although the market has attempted to rebound several times, Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market are still under pressure and have failed to establish a sustained upward trend. Many analysts have issued warnings that if bulls want to reverse the decline, they must take action quickly to reclaim key levels; otherwise, Bitcoin may face further downside risks.

However, Ki Young Ju believes that it may be premature to assert that the bull market cycle has ended. CryptoQuant's on-chain data shows that market on-chain activity remains relatively subdued, and key indicators are neutral. This indicates that although the recent market performance has been weak, the overall bullish market structure may not have been broken. In addition, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain robust, with more mining machines coming online, reflecting the continued confidence of the market's major participants in Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

Ju further points out that if this round of the bull market cycle ends here, it is probably not a favorable outcome for the key market participants, including early "whale" investors, major mining companies, traditional financial institutions, and the U.S. President Trump, who has publicly expressed support for cryptocurrency. Retail investors are usually considered latecomers in the bull market cycle, and at this stage, their market behavior may not yet be sufficient to dominate the market direction.

$85,000 Key Liquidity Test, Will Historical Cycle Repeat?

A TradingView analyst believes that the more critical short-term support for BTC is still at $85,000, a level that has played a crucial role in the market dynamics in recent weeks.

If Bitcoin continues to trade below $85,000 in the coming days, it may trigger a larger-scale market sell-off. The concentrated release of selling pressure could lead to an accelerated price decline, further confirming the bearish sentiment in the market. At that time, Bitcoin may face the risk of testing lower support levels.

Quinten posted on Platform X, stating: Looking back at history may provide us with some insights. In the previous bull market cycle, Bitcoin experienced seven significant pullbacks with percentages of -17%, -17%, -32%, -26%, -28%, -51%, -25%. Each pullback has sparked market panic, making it feel like the "bear market" has arrived. Every time the price dropped significantly, the market was filled with claims that "Bitcoin is dead." However, history has shown that Bitcoin has always successfully overcome resistance and continued to rise. Indeed, history does not repeat itself simply, but it often rhymes remarkably.

Overall, $85,000 and $90,000 will be the two key price levels that will be the focus of the short-term market battle between bulls and bears. Investors need to closely monitor the developments at these two levels to assess the market's next move.

According to the analyst MasterAnanda, the current market trend is very "interesting" and reveals some key signals worth noting:

Bottom Possibly Found: Last week, Bitcoin retraced sharply by 28% from its all-time high of $109,000, reaching a low of $78,300 before a rapid strong rebound. This "bottom bounce" V-shaped reversal trend is often seen as a signal of a temporary market bottom formation, indicating a reduced likelihood of further significant short-term declines.

Healthy Pullback in a Bull Market: After experiencing a strong uptrend in a bull market, a certain degree of pullback in the market is considered a normal phenomenon. This kind of pullback helps release profits from earlier market accumulation, allowing the market to gather new upward momentum. A healthy correction lays the foundation for a longer-term bull market.

Opportunity to Buy the Dip in a "Golden Pocket": The current market pullback actually provides a rare entry opportunity for off-exchange funds. If you missed the rapid Bitcoin rally from $85,000 to $95,000, now may be a good time to accumulate at a relatively lower level. The market is always full of opportunities, and a pullback is an important "accumulation phase" in a bull market cycle.

Long-Term Bullish Trend Remains: Bitcoin's long-term upward growth trend has not fundamentally changed. Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin is expected to resume its uptrend in the coming months, gradually moving upward. According to earlier analysts' predictions, Bitcoin still has the potential to target $120,000 next month.

Technical Indicators Provide Support: Observing the Bitcoin daily chart, the 200-day Moving Average (MA200) is playing a crucial support role, with MA200 being a key technical indicator for determining the long-term trend of a cryptocurrency. The current Bitcoin price trend is forming higher lows, indicating a potential confirmation of the bullish trend.

Market Sentiment and Fund Accumulation: This cycle is not solely driven by U.S. government policies or geopolitical events but rather a reflection of the market's own cyclical patterns. Bitcoin has prepared for a new phase of growth and is expected to reach a new high in 2025. Additionally, there is still a significant amount of funds waiting on the sidelines, ready to enter once the market stabilizes and rebounds, further boosting the market rise.

In conclusion, Bitcoin may have found a temporary bottom, and the market is entering an accumulation phase of consolidation and preparation. Despite short-term market fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend remains solid. Investors can seize the current pullback opportunity, gradually accumulate at relatively lower levels, hold patiently, and await the market's eventual direction.

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