Hunter Horsley: The Four-Year Cycle Will Be Broken Due to "Reflexivity," 2026 Remains Undefined

By: theblockbeats.news|2025/11/16 16:45:52

BlockBeats News, November 16th, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley posted, saying, "Here is what I observed happening every four years:

Consensus: People believe in the four-year cycle, so 2026 will be a bear market year for Bitcoin;

First-order effect: People will start selling in 2025 to avoid the bear market year;

Second-order effect: Sellers in 2025 cause 2025 to be a bear year, breaking the 4-year cycle;

Third-order effect: 2026 is still undefined, but the four-year cycle is broken.

Recently, Hunter Horsley said, "The four-year cycle is a relic of the past. Since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, we have entered a new market structure: new participants, new dynamics, new reasons for people to buy and sell. I believe we have likely already experienced a bear market for almost 6 months and are about to exit it. The development environment for cryptocurrency has never been more favorable."

-- Price

From private credit to GPU leasing, from catastrophe bonds to music royalties, the range of tokenizable assets is much richer than the market perceives. However, the biggest challenge is not technology, but distribution—existing RWAs heavily rely on a few large deployers, and the concentration of ri...

Those who are cut off by AI will not disappear; they will become the creators of the next round of the economy

AI is not eliminating people, but rather the superstition of "stable careers": those who break the shackles of organizations and understand how to rewrite themselves are ushering in the ultimate revenge.

Stablecoins reshaping cross-border payments in Asia? Strategic panorama and investment opportunity analysis

Join WEEX AI Wars II: How WEEX API, Trader Skills Empower AI Trading Innovations

Join WEEX AI Wars II and be part of a global AI trading revolution. Compete with top AI agents and bots, showcase your strategies, and leverage WEEX API and Trader Skill to innovate, automate, and gain exposure in the AI trading ecosystem. Onboard your AI agent to WEEX AI Wars II NOW.

What kind of scenario will Backpack's TGE today play out in the bear market opening?

Currently, the Polymarket market gives an 87% probability to the event of its fully diluted valuation surpassing $200 million on the day after its launch.

Polymarket Ten Million Dollar Winner Retrospective: 40 Addresses, 100,000 Transactions, Only Three Ways to Make Money

The difference between the three is not in the parameters, but in playing entirely different games.

The Most Brutal Single-Month Plunge in 43 Years, Gold's Every Top Looks Like This

In the first three peaks, the central bank was not a net buyer of gold

Jiang Xueqin's Latest Interview Transcript: How to View the Current Global Changes

Iran's Next Move, Trump's War Plan, and Israel's Plot to Sabotage It

Maximize Your USDT Yield: The Weex Auto Earn Strategy for Passive Crypto Income

Learn how to earn interest on USDT with WEEX Auto Earn. Discover how stablecoins can generate passive income and why some platforms now offer up to 300% APR.

1 million investment yields over 1 billion return, Airwallex co-founder Liu Yueting reviews key life investments

At 25, all in with millions of dollars, at 34 worth 3 billion, Lucy Liu, co-founder of Airwallex, shares her ten-year wealth creation logic: betting on the right track, building a deep moat with licenses, and fully embracing AI intelligent finance by 2026.

Polymarket Millionaire Review: 40 addresses, 100,000 transactions, only three ways to make money

The differences between the three categories are not due to different parameters, but rather because they are playing completely different games.

Four Key Truths and Cost Traps Behind Polymarket LP Market Making Incentives

The potion left in the witch's hand is still poison; let's wait for Polymarket's major announcement tomorrow.

San Francisco Stablecoin Weekly Insights: The XYZ Coordinate System of 2026

Stablecoins 2026 New Narrative: No longer just "issuing coins," but reconstructing global financial infrastructure along three dimensions: AI payment authorization, RWA on-chain credit, and cross-border on-chain FX.

Asia's Next Great Dog Coin Debuts at the Weex AI Trading Hackathon

A BNB Chain meme token inspired by the Shih Tzu dog, blending community culture, creativity, and long‑term loyalty in Web3.

Fluxor: Connecting Global Builders With the WEEX AI Trading Hackathon

A hackathon platform connecting builders and creators to collaborative opportunities and innovation in Web3, enabling AI-oriented developers to experiment and create at scale.

The growth of AI-driven tools and community collaboration in Web3 has created new opportunities for developers worldwide. As a community partner and sponsor of the WEEX AI Trading Hackathon, Fluxor's mission to unify hackathon experiences and foster creative partnerships aligns with this spirit of collective innovation.