Hayes: Chinese Tariff Retaliation May Spark New Wave of Crypto Capital

Original Title: China's tariff response may mean more capital flight to crypto: Hayes

Original Author: Martin Young, CoinTelegraph

Original Translation: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that China's response to the U.S. full trade tariffs may lead to capital flight to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

"If not the Fed, then the PBoC will be providing us the material for a Yahtzee," Hayes said on X on April 8, referring to the catalyst needed to reignite the cryptocurrency market bull run.

Hayes stated that if the Renminbi depreciates, "capital will flow into Bitcoin," adding that "it worked in 2013, 2015, and will work in 2025 as well."

Bybit co-founder and CEO Ben Zhou stated that China will attempt to lower the Renminbi exchange rate in response to tariffs, adding that historically, a Renminbi devaluation has been favorable for Bitcoin.

Renminbi vs. USD has weakened since 2022. Source: Google Finance

In August 2015, China devalued the Renminbi against the USD by nearly 2%, marking the largest single-day drop in decades. During this time, Bitcoin did attract some investor interest, although the direct cause-effect relationship remains debated.

When the Renminbi exchange rate broke the symbolic 7:1 mark against the USD in August 2019, Bitcoin's price also surged during the same period. Some analysts believe Chinese investors were using Bitcoin as a hedge, as the asset saw a 20% rise in the first week of that month.

In 2019, cryptocurrency asset management firm Grayscale noted the Renminbi depreciation and attributed it as one factor stimulating the Bitcoin market.

Avoiding Currency Control and Wealth Preservation

According to analysts, affluent Chinese citizens may have used cryptocurrency in the past to preserve wealth, shielding it from government control and evading domestic capital controls and restrictions.

People also believe that currency devaluation will undermine people's trust in central banks and government financial management, prompting them to turn to decentralized alternatives such as Bitcoin.

On April 7, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, to which China responded by stating that it would "fight to the end."

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated in a declaration: "If the U.S. implements tariff escalation measures, China will resolutely take countermeasures to defend its own interests."

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