Cyber Capital Founder: Ripple is Fully Centralized, Please Remain Vigilant

By: blockbeats|2024/12/03 17:15:01
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Original Author: Justin Bons, Founder of Cyber Capital
Original Translator: Luffy, Foresight News

Ripple (XRP) is a centralized and permissioned network, contrary to statements made by its executives. XRP misleads investors by falsely claiming its decentralized nature when, in fact, the network is fully controlled by the foundation.

The XRP consensus is based on a Unique Node List (UNL), where trusted nodes are determined by a centralized entity (including the foundation). The XRP consensus is not based on PoS or PoW but on PoA (Proof of Authority), yet they claim to be more decentralized than Bitcoin and Ethereum...

All of this is supported by Ripple's own documentation, and it's hard to find any researchers outside of XRP who would classify this design as "decentralized"; however, they are deceiving the public.

However, users can modify their UNL and choose whom to trust. The language used here is very subtle. A truly decentralized cryptocurrency is "trustless" because it requires no "trust" at all, and choosing whom to trust is entirely different from being trustless!

XRP is not trustless at all, and what's worse is: if your UNL does not overlap sufficiently with the rest of the network, you are at risk. According to Ripple's documentation: a 90% UNL overlap is required to prevent forks.

This means that in practice, you need direct permission from the XRP foundation to participate in the consensus, which is almost centralization in terms of blockchain design... Let's take a deeper look at these UNLs below.

We have established that the UNL is the trusted third party chosen by the XRP foundation, and as we delve deeper into these UNLs, this point is further confirmed: for a long time, there was only one UNL, the dUNL managed by the XRP foundation.

However, this list is not static but dynamic. The XRP foundation can, in a completely centralized manner, change the list of validators without any notice, kicking out anyone who violates authority.

Over time, now there are two UNLs, namely the dUNL and XRPLF, both directly funded by the XRP foundation. This adds another layer of de facto control over the network; let me explain:

Blockchain allows mutually untrusting parties to coordinate, all thanks to the underlying incentive mechanism (PoS or PoW). However, XRP lacks block rewards and incentives; it is purely based on trust. So, how do different Unique Node Lists (UNLs) coordinate with each other?

XRP's premise is based on the idea that different parties can spontaneously organize around a new UNL without the need for the aforementioned incentive mechanism. This notion is clearly fallacious because this is precisely the problem blockchain aims to solve: a new UNL cannot achieve coordination.

If a new UNL cannot coordinate, it means the foundation holds de facto control. Control over validators equals control over the network, resembling a permissioned blockchain.

In all other blockchains, you cannot choose validators as they are trustless and permissionless. This is why validators can be anonymous—secured by cryptoeconomic game theory, not trust. This is the fundamental difference of XRP.

XRP is fundamentally not a cryptocurrency. Since it is neither PoS nor PoW, it is a PoA. What else could it be? A consensus algorithm requires a validation mechanism, with trust as the system’s foundation, thus: XRP is a PoA!

Cyber Capital Founder: Ripple is Fully Centralized, Please Remain Vigilant

A PoA system always has a central authority to appoint validators. So, what about the fact that there are currently two "official" UNLs? This fact contradicts my assertion that different UNLs cannot coordinate. This is where things truly start to get crazy:

Upon careful inspection, I discovered that all UNLs are, in fact, identical, using the same set of validators, further proving that the foundation effectively controls the XRP network!

This screenshot is from 2 years ago, but I confirm the situation remains the same today, demonstrating that new UNLs cannot coordinate. Thus, the foundation's list becomes the de facto list since all UNLs must comply, or there is a risk of fork.

This also allows the foundation to conduct audits if compelled, given their high level of control. This operates drastically differently from cryptocurrencies and explains why halting the network only requires 20% of validators...

Running trusted validators also has no incentives. Unlike PoW or PoS, where the cost of attack reflects the block reward to miners/stakers, the decentralized standard heavily relies on block rewards. On XRP, this decentralization measure stands at zero.

I have been researching XRP since the early days, and I vividly remember when people recognized the trade-off of decentralization. As the community and leadership's stance became more extreme, this situation gradually changed. I say this not to disparage investors but to empower them.

Help break the XRP echo chamber and stop being someone else's liquidity out. XRP's pre-mining rate of 99.8% makes it one of the most unfairly distributed cryptocurrencies in history. As no new XRP was created, all newly circulating XRP was purchased from the founders.

I have always been intrigued by the early discussions about Ripple's decentralization, pretending that XRP is permissionless is not the right answer. The real solution is to use PoS to replace the UNL list, transforming XRP into a more traditionally decentralized blockchain.

They could also openly admit that facts are facts, and I will not dispute that. However, using lies to attract ignorant retail investors is wrong. This is where we as an industry need to draw the line and self-regulate!

XRP may currently be able to bribe or deceive the SEC, but they cannot deceive us, the cryptocurrency natives. Regardless of how complex and in-depth the rebuttals may be, it will not change some simple facts: XRP is now fully permissioned and centralized.

If you truly care about XRP, take it seriously. Because within this critical post exists a path that can help XRP succeed: owning up to its centralization or transitioning to decentralization. The truth sets us free, either walk away from XRP or exert pressure for change; nothing is irredeemable.

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Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026? Why Is It Stuck at $1.45

XRP is up 6.7% this week, but exchange reserves remain high. Is a volatility spike imminent? We analyze price trend, ETF inflows, whale activity, and regulatory catalysts to answer: will XRP go up, why is XRP dropping, and is XRP a good investment right now?

TL; DR

What is XRP: XRP is a digital asset built for fast, low-cost international payments. It runs on the XRP Ledger and is used by Ripple for its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service. Unlike Bitcoin, XRP settles transactions in 3-5 seconds with near-zero fees.Why is XRP Dropping: XRP is not actively dropping, but it is struggling to rise. On the monthly chart, XRP has seen six consecutive months of decline. Currently, the price faces an additional supply wall at $1.45. About 1.24 billion XRP were bought in that range, and those holders sell when the price approaches, creating selling pressure that prevents a recovery.Will XRP Go Up: Potentially yes. XRP is trading near $1.43 and showing its best weekly performance since September 2025. If the price breaks above the $1.45 resistance, analysts expect a move toward $1.90, supported by strong institutional demand.Is XRP a Good Investment: The answer is not simple. Short-term traders may see opportunity in the coming volatility spike. Long-term investors face a bigger question that depends on one key regulatory event. However, the data reveals a surprising signal that most retail buyers are missing right now. To understand whether XRP is a smart buy or a trap at $1.43, you will need to read the full analysis below.What is XRP? A Digital Asset for Global Settlement

Before analyzing the charts, it is crucial to understand the asset in question. What is XRP? Unlike Bitcoin, which was designed as a decentralized digital gold, XRP operates on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). It was created to facilitate fast, low-cost international payments. Traditional bank transfers take days and incur high fees. XRP transactions settle in 3-5 seconds, costing fractions of a penny.

Ripple, the company associated with XRP, uses this asset for its "On-Demand Liquidity" (ODL) service. Banks and financial institutions use ODL to source liquidity during cross-border transactions without pre-funding accounts. This utility is the primary driver for institutional interest. Recently, the network hit a milestone of over 8 million active wallets, signaling growing usage despite recent price stagnation . Furthermore, Ripple is proactively preparing for the future, releasing a four-stage roadmap to make the XRPL "quantum-resistant," aiming to secure the ledger against future quantum computing threats by 2028 .

XRP Price Analysis: The Battle for $1.45

The XRP price trend over the last month tells a story of exhaustion followed by cautious recovery. On the monthly chart, XRP experienced six consecutive months of decline. However, April shows signs of a bottoming process. Weekly charts reinforce this view: after four weeks of lower closes, the last two weeks have seen small rebounds.

According to data from April 22, 2026, XRP is trading at approximately $1.44. Over the last seven days, XRP has outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum, rising 6.7% while the broader market rose only 3.2%. Spot trading volume surged 23% to $3.79 billion, and derivative markets saw $40 billion in futures volume on a single day.

Despite this, the price remains 60% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. The current technical picture shows a "low volatility grind" higher. The 20-day EMA is at $1.3924, and the 50-day EMA is at $1.4119, both acting as support . However, the immediate hurdle is the $1.45 resistance level. This price point has rejected every rally attempt in 2026.

Why is XRP Dropping? And Will XRP Go Up?

The primary reason for the recent "drop" (or lack of upward momentum) is not active selling, but rather the "supply wall." Data indicates that roughly 1.24 billion XRP tokens were purchased by investors in the $1.45 to $1.47 range. These investors have been waiting months to "break even." Every time the price approaches $1.45, these holders sell to exit their positions, creating a massive wall that retail buying cannot easily absorb.

However, the underlying momentum is shifting. Analysts suggest a xrp volatility spike imminent because the absorption capacity of buyers is increasing. Historically, when exchange reserves are high but the price refuses to drop significantly, it signals that buyers are absorbing the supply. The price has held above $1.39 despite the overhang, which is a sign of relative strength.

So, will XRP go up? Yes, potentially. But it needs a catalyst, if the price closes a daily candle above $1.45. If that happens, the next targets are $1.60 to $1.65, and eventually $1.90 .

XRP Exchange Netflow and XRP ETF Netflow: A Tale of Two Markets

The current market dynamic is best understood by looking at two opposing data streams: XRP Exchange netflow and XRP ETF flows.

Exchange Dynamics (Retail / Whales):

Data shows a complex pattern of "large inflows and increasing reserves." Recently, a Ripple-associated wallet moved 75 million XRP (approx. $108 million) to Coinbase. This initially looks like a dump, but context matters. These transfers are likely to provide liquidity for Ripple’s ODL business, not necessarily spot market selling. However, the result is that exchange reserves have climbed to 2.76 billion XRP .

The Good News: While reserves are high, the rate of increase is slowing. Specifically, "whale" transfers to exchanges have dropped 98% from their April 11 peak. The Binance reserve has slightly decreased from 27.7 to 27.6 billion. The aggressive selling from large holders appears to have stopped.

Institutional Dynamics (ETF):

While whales were sending coins to exchanges, institutions were buying XRP ETF products. XRP ETF net flow is strongly positive.

US-listed XRP ETFs recorded four consecutive days of inflows totaling $38.86 million recently .The weekly inflow for mid-April hit $119.6 million, a multi-month high .Cumulative net inflows stand at $12.8 billion, with Assets Under Management (AUM) at roughly $10.8 billion.Analyzing the Divergence: Why Both Flows Are Positive

It seems contradictory that exchange reserves are high (suggesting selling) while ETFs are buying (suggesting buying). However, this phenomenon reveals the current market structure.

Different Investor Profiles: The exchange inflows likely come from short-term traders, market makers, or Ripple itself providing ODL liquidity. These are "hot" coins ready to be sold. The ETF inflows represent "sticky" capital. Institutions buying ETFs are typically long-term holders (LTHs) or asset managers who do not day-trade. They are removing liquidity from the spot market by buying through custodians.The "De-risking" Trade: Sophisticated funds might be engaging in basis trading. They buy the ETF (taking a long position) while simultaneously shorting XRP futures or selling spot inventory to capture the funding rate. This keeps the price stable while volume increases.Absorption: The most likely scenario is that the market is simply absorbing the excess supply. The fact that the price is stable ($1.43) and not collapsing to $1.20 despite 2.76 billion coins sitting on exchanges is a massive win for the bulls. The ETF inflows are acting as a sponge, soaking up the selling pressure from the ODL wallets.The Regulatory Catalyst: The SEC and the CLARITY Act

Fundamentally, the recent price action cannot be separated from regulation. For years, the primary answer was the SEC lawsuit. That narrative is dying.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently praised SEC Chair Paul Atkins as "a breath of fresh air and sanity" . This regulatory thaw is critical. The SEC is reportedly considering dropping the long-standing lawsuit, and five XRP ETF applications are awaiting review.

The major catalyst on the horizon is the CLARITY Act. A Senate markup is expected before the end of April. Standard Chartered analysts project that if the bill advances, it could unlock $4 to $8 billion in institutional flows . Polymarket gives the bill a 60-66% chance of passing in 2026. If the CLARITY Act classifies XRP as a non-security (commodity), the institutional floodgates will open, likely overwhelming the $1.45 supply wall instantly.

Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026?

Given all this data, is XRP a good investment? The answer depends entirely on your risk tolerance and time horizon.

The Bull Case (Why it is a good investment): The risk/reward ratio is asymmetrical to the upside. The price is near multi-year lows relative to its utility. Whale selling has stopped, ETF demand is rising, and the network is expanding (8 million wallets, quantum resistance roadmap). If the CLARITY Act passes, XRP could realistically trade between $1.60 and $1.80 in the short term, with a potential run to $3.00+ if the lawsuit is officially dropped.The Risk Case (Why it is NOT a good investment): There is a clear resistance wall at $1.45. If the CLARITY Act fails or is delayed past May (due to midterm election dynamics), the "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic could reverse. If the price fails to break $1.45 and loses support at $1.33, a drop back to $1.15 is technically possible .

Verdict: XRP is a speculative buy for traders looking for a volatility spike. It is a hold for current investors. For new investors, it is only a good investment if you believe in regulatory clarity within the next 30 days. Technically, waiting for a confirmed break above $1.55 (to avoid the fakeout) is safer than buying at $1.43.

FAQ

Q: Will XRP go up if the CLARITY Act passes?

A: Yes, historically. Analysts predict that if the CLARITY Act passes, signaling that XRP is a commodity, it would remove the regulatory overhang. This could trigger a surge in institutional buying, pushing the price from the current $1.43 range to test the $1.80 - $2.00 resistance levels quickly.

Q: Why is XRP dropping when Bitcoin is going up?

A: XRP has specific supply dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply issuance, XRP faces periodic sell-pressure from Ripple's treasury wallets used to fund ODL (liquidity) services. Additionally, the $1.45 "break-even" wall causes XRP to drop relative to BTC when short-term traders exit.

Q: Is a volatility spike imminent for XRP?

A: Yes. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are squeezing. The price is stuck between support at $1.33 and resistance at $1.45. Historically, when XRP volume surges 23% in a week (as it did on April 21), it precedes a violent move. The direction depends on whether the $1.45 resistance breaks.

Q: What is the XRP ETF netflow status?

A: As of late April 2026, XRP ETFs are seeing positive netflows. The US ETFs recorded a single week inflow of $119.6 million in mid-April. Cumulative inflows are strong at $12.8 billion, indicating that institutions are accumulating during this dip, which is a long-term bullish signal for price stabilization.

Q: Is XRP a good investment for beginners?

A: XRP is less volatile than "meme coins" but more volatile than Bitcoin. For beginners, it is a moderate-risk investment. Its value is tied to real utility (bank payments). However, beginners should wait to see if the price can close a weekly candle above $1.55 before entering, to avoid buying into the current resistance wall.

Disclaimer: None of the information in this article constitutes, or is intended to constitute, investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research.

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