Change in Calculation Method for U.S. PCE Price Index Expected to Lower Core Inflation by 0.2%
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will change the calculation method for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index starting in September. Economists predict that the new statistical method will lower the core PCE inflation rate by about 0.2 percentage points. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), under the U.S. Department of Commerce, plans to revise the pricing methods for investment advisory services, computer software, and legal services. The revised statistics will take effect with the August PCE price announcement, and the data from the past five years will also be retroactively adjusted. Currently, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is estimated at 2.6%, while the core PCE is around 3.3%. This adjustment is expected to improve the recent trend where the PCE inflation rate has been higher than the CPI. The BEA will incorporate various data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) into software pricing and will change the asset management fee calculation to reflect the actual scale of services provided. Legal services are expected to reflect somewhat higher prices using the Producer Price Index (PPI). While this adjustment may influence the Fed's policy decisions, experts emphasize that it is a routine revision of the statistical methodology.
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