Chainalysis report: Stablecoins, TradFi and RWA are leading the next wave of Web3

By: blockbeats|2024/12/11 12:15:01
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Original title: Growth Opportunities: Stablecoins, TradFi Engagement, and Tokenization Lead Web3's Next Wave
Original source: Chainalysis
Original translation: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

The cryptocurrency industry has entered a new stage of maturity, driven by increasing adoption, continued innovation, and deeper integration with the traditional financial system around the world.

This year, BTC hit new all-time highs in March and December, reflecting huge demand. At the same time, DeFi's position in the global economy is constantly consolidating, and global capital inflows are also approaching new highs. In addition, traditional finance (TradFi) is revitalized, and funds are pouring into areas such as stablecoins and crypto exchange-traded products (ETP) markets, indicating that cryptocurrencies are quietly fulfilling their promise to reshape the global financial infrastructure.

This is not just another market cycle, but a critical moment for cryptocurrencies.

Atypical Bull Market

At the end of 2023, BTC began to rise, marking the beginning of a new round of rising market.

Chainalysis report: Stablecoins, TradFi and RWA are leading the next wave of Web3

On March 5, 2024, BTC broke through its previous all-time high, rising to more than $73,000; in December of the same year, it broke through the $100,000 mark again.

In addition, the transfer activity of all digital assets has exceeded the historical highs of the end of 2020 and 2021, indicating that the activity of this round of market cycle is far more active than the previous bull market.

From late 2023 to early 2024, DeFi began to show signs of recovery, with activity levels reaching previous all-time highs, as shown below.

Current asset prices and DeFi activity are not the only indicators of market adaptability and resilience - global adoption of stablecoins, explosive interest in traditional finance (TradFi), and the rise of services for new use cases such as tokenization (described below) all indicate that cryptocurrencies are becoming more widely accepted and integrated into the global economy.

Global Utility Driving the Rise of Stablecoins

Stablecoins are typically pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar or other fiat currencies, combining the efficiency, security, and transparency of cryptocurrencies without the volatility risks common in other crypto markets.

While major cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH often dominate the headlines and offer returns that stablecoins cannot match, stablecoins have surpassed other types of cryptocurrencies in terms of adoption. In recent months, stablecoins have accounted for more than half of all on-chain transaction volume, reaching as much as 75%.

By making the stability of the U.S. dollar accessible to anyone in the world with an internet connection, stablecoins provide a critical solution for residents of countries facing currency volatility, both to protect savings and to facilitate commercial transactions.

The growing prominence of stablecoins in overall trading activity shows that this asset class has achieved a high level of utility among crypto users.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs Mark a Historic Convergence of Cryptocurrency and Traditional Finance

Traditional finance (TradFi) validation of cryptocurrencies in 2024 reached a historic milestone, with the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) in the U.S. market further bolstering institutional investor interest. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) – the most popular form of ETPs – have attracted significant interest from both retail and institutional investors.

With the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs, the entire market has experienced a rally based on this, as these funds offer regulated mainstream investment vehicles that can gain exposure to cryptocurrencies, which often attract investors who may be hesitant about the complexity and security issues of using traditional crypto trading platforms directly.

Daily trading volumes for Bitcoin ETFs have surged, approaching $10 billion in daily trading volume in March. Bitcoin ETF inflows have also surpassed those of the first net gold ETF launched in 2005 (adjusted for inflation), as shown in the chart below, making it the fastest growing ETF in history.

The price of Bitcoin began to rise rapidly following the news of the approval of the Bitcoin ETF on January 10, 2024, and trading began shortly thereafter.

By providing easier access to cryptocurrencies through traditional trading platforms, ETPs can unlock new sources of demand for the underlying asset, which appears to be one of the important factors driving the recent price increase of Bitcoin (BTC).

While it is difficult to pinpoint the exact impact of the launch of Bitcoin ETPs in the U.S., it is widely believed to have boosted market optimism and expanded institutional investor exposure to Bitcoin. The surge in demand reflects the unique appeal of ETPs among retail and institutional investors, offering a regulated and familiar way to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the complexity of managing private key wallets.

Tokenization: Real World Assets (RWAs) Are Growing

The excitement surrounding the mass tokenization of real world assets (RWAs) is quietly changing the asset management and investment landscape, with many traditional finance (TradFi) giants, such as Franklin Templeton, already taking a stake in this market. Goldman Sachs reportedly plans to launch a crypto trading platform focused on tokenization in the next 12 to 18 months.

RWAs refer to any asset with value — whether tangible or intangible — that derives its value from something other than a blockchain. Through tokenization, the rights to these assets, from real estate to art to intellectual property, are represented as tokens on the blockchain. This process not only simplifies the process of selling and trading these assets, but also increases their accessibility to a wider audience, creating a more efficient and liquid market. RWAs also promise to enhance transparency in the investment market, as all transactions are recorded on-chain.

Currently, most RWA projects focus on tokenizing relatively simple and stable financial instruments, such as U.S. Treasuries, and lending platforms such as Goldfinch and Ondo Finance, which rely on tokenized RWAs as their core, have captured the majority of the RWA market. According to data compiled by asset management company 21.co, the total market value of tokenized projects has exceeded $100 billion.

Although still in its early stages, the growing prominence of RWAs is a key step towards a future where most value transfers will take place on the blockchain, promoting a unified, open, and less frictional global market.

What the Cryptocurrency Industry Maturation Might Mean for Organizations

When we look at the progress of the crypto ecosystem, it is clear that we are experiencing a huge shift in perception and usage. While the cryptocurrency market may experience volatility and long bear cycles, one trend is consistent: wallets holding positive balances have grown linearly and continue to rise. Currently, over 400 million wallets hold cryptocurrency.

While one wallet does not mean only one user, as institutions and individuals can manage multiple wallets, the sheer volume of growth suggests that cryptocurrency adoption is steadily increasing.

As the influence of cryptocurrency continues to grow, it becomes even more important to measure success in this new paradigm. For organizations, adapting to the on-chain reality is more than just keeping up with technological advancements — it requires a complete reassessment of operating models to take advantage of the unique opportunities blockchain presents.

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Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026? Why Is It Stuck at $1.45

XRP is up 6.7% this week, but exchange reserves remain high. Is a volatility spike imminent? We analyze price trend, ETF inflows, whale activity, and regulatory catalysts to answer: will XRP go up, why is XRP dropping, and is XRP a good investment right now?

TL; DR

What is XRP: XRP is a digital asset built for fast, low-cost international payments. It runs on the XRP Ledger and is used by Ripple for its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service. Unlike Bitcoin, XRP settles transactions in 3-5 seconds with near-zero fees.Why is XRP Dropping: XRP is not actively dropping, but it is struggling to rise. On the monthly chart, XRP has seen six consecutive months of decline. Currently, the price faces an additional supply wall at $1.45. About 1.24 billion XRP were bought in that range, and those holders sell when the price approaches, creating selling pressure that prevents a recovery.Will XRP Go Up: Potentially yes. XRP is trading near $1.43 and showing its best weekly performance since September 2025. If the price breaks above the $1.45 resistance, analysts expect a move toward $1.90, supported by strong institutional demand.Is XRP a Good Investment: The answer is not simple. Short-term traders may see opportunity in the coming volatility spike. Long-term investors face a bigger question that depends on one key regulatory event. However, the data reveals a surprising signal that most retail buyers are missing right now. To understand whether XRP is a smart buy or a trap at $1.43, you will need to read the full analysis below.What is XRP? A Digital Asset for Global Settlement

Before analyzing the charts, it is crucial to understand the asset in question. What is XRP? Unlike Bitcoin, which was designed as a decentralized digital gold, XRP operates on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). It was created to facilitate fast, low-cost international payments. Traditional bank transfers take days and incur high fees. XRP transactions settle in 3-5 seconds, costing fractions of a penny.

Ripple, the company associated with XRP, uses this asset for its "On-Demand Liquidity" (ODL) service. Banks and financial institutions use ODL to source liquidity during cross-border transactions without pre-funding accounts. This utility is the primary driver for institutional interest. Recently, the network hit a milestone of over 8 million active wallets, signaling growing usage despite recent price stagnation . Furthermore, Ripple is proactively preparing for the future, releasing a four-stage roadmap to make the XRPL "quantum-resistant," aiming to secure the ledger against future quantum computing threats by 2028 .

XRP Price Analysis: The Battle for $1.45

The XRP price trend over the last month tells a story of exhaustion followed by cautious recovery. On the monthly chart, XRP experienced six consecutive months of decline. However, April shows signs of a bottoming process. Weekly charts reinforce this view: after four weeks of lower closes, the last two weeks have seen small rebounds.

According to data from April 22, 2026, XRP is trading at approximately $1.44. Over the last seven days, XRP has outperformed both Bitcoin and Ethereum, rising 6.7% while the broader market rose only 3.2%. Spot trading volume surged 23% to $3.79 billion, and derivative markets saw $40 billion in futures volume on a single day.

Despite this, the price remains 60% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. The current technical picture shows a "low volatility grind" higher. The 20-day EMA is at $1.3924, and the 50-day EMA is at $1.4119, both acting as support . However, the immediate hurdle is the $1.45 resistance level. This price point has rejected every rally attempt in 2026.

Why is XRP Dropping? And Will XRP Go Up?

The primary reason for the recent "drop" (or lack of upward momentum) is not active selling, but rather the "supply wall." Data indicates that roughly 1.24 billion XRP tokens were purchased by investors in the $1.45 to $1.47 range. These investors have been waiting months to "break even." Every time the price approaches $1.45, these holders sell to exit their positions, creating a massive wall that retail buying cannot easily absorb.

However, the underlying momentum is shifting. Analysts suggest a xrp volatility spike imminent because the absorption capacity of buyers is increasing. Historically, when exchange reserves are high but the price refuses to drop significantly, it signals that buyers are absorbing the supply. The price has held above $1.39 despite the overhang, which is a sign of relative strength.

So, will XRP go up? Yes, potentially. But it needs a catalyst, if the price closes a daily candle above $1.45. If that happens, the next targets are $1.60 to $1.65, and eventually $1.90 .

XRP Exchange Netflow and XRP ETF Netflow: A Tale of Two Markets

The current market dynamic is best understood by looking at two opposing data streams: XRP Exchange netflow and XRP ETF flows.

Exchange Dynamics (Retail / Whales):

Data shows a complex pattern of "large inflows and increasing reserves." Recently, a Ripple-associated wallet moved 75 million XRP (approx. $108 million) to Coinbase. This initially looks like a dump, but context matters. These transfers are likely to provide liquidity for Ripple’s ODL business, not necessarily spot market selling. However, the result is that exchange reserves have climbed to 2.76 billion XRP .

The Good News: While reserves are high, the rate of increase is slowing. Specifically, "whale" transfers to exchanges have dropped 98% from their April 11 peak. The Binance reserve has slightly decreased from 27.7 to 27.6 billion. The aggressive selling from large holders appears to have stopped.

Institutional Dynamics (ETF):

While whales were sending coins to exchanges, institutions were buying XRP ETF products. XRP ETF net flow is strongly positive.

US-listed XRP ETFs recorded four consecutive days of inflows totaling $38.86 million recently .The weekly inflow for mid-April hit $119.6 million, a multi-month high .Cumulative net inflows stand at $12.8 billion, with Assets Under Management (AUM) at roughly $10.8 billion.Analyzing the Divergence: Why Both Flows Are Positive

It seems contradictory that exchange reserves are high (suggesting selling) while ETFs are buying (suggesting buying). However, this phenomenon reveals the current market structure.

Different Investor Profiles: The exchange inflows likely come from short-term traders, market makers, or Ripple itself providing ODL liquidity. These are "hot" coins ready to be sold. The ETF inflows represent "sticky" capital. Institutions buying ETFs are typically long-term holders (LTHs) or asset managers who do not day-trade. They are removing liquidity from the spot market by buying through custodians.The "De-risking" Trade: Sophisticated funds might be engaging in basis trading. They buy the ETF (taking a long position) while simultaneously shorting XRP futures or selling spot inventory to capture the funding rate. This keeps the price stable while volume increases.Absorption: The most likely scenario is that the market is simply absorbing the excess supply. The fact that the price is stable ($1.43) and not collapsing to $1.20 despite 2.76 billion coins sitting on exchanges is a massive win for the bulls. The ETF inflows are acting as a sponge, soaking up the selling pressure from the ODL wallets.The Regulatory Catalyst: The SEC and the CLARITY Act

Fundamentally, the recent price action cannot be separated from regulation. For years, the primary answer was the SEC lawsuit. That narrative is dying.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently praised SEC Chair Paul Atkins as "a breath of fresh air and sanity" . This regulatory thaw is critical. The SEC is reportedly considering dropping the long-standing lawsuit, and five XRP ETF applications are awaiting review.

The major catalyst on the horizon is the CLARITY Act. A Senate markup is expected before the end of April. Standard Chartered analysts project that if the bill advances, it could unlock $4 to $8 billion in institutional flows . Polymarket gives the bill a 60-66% chance of passing in 2026. If the CLARITY Act classifies XRP as a non-security (commodity), the institutional floodgates will open, likely overwhelming the $1.45 supply wall instantly.

Is XRP a Good Investment in 2026?

Given all this data, is XRP a good investment? The answer depends entirely on your risk tolerance and time horizon.

The Bull Case (Why it is a good investment): The risk/reward ratio is asymmetrical to the upside. The price is near multi-year lows relative to its utility. Whale selling has stopped, ETF demand is rising, and the network is expanding (8 million wallets, quantum resistance roadmap). If the CLARITY Act passes, XRP could realistically trade between $1.60 and $1.80 in the short term, with a potential run to $3.00+ if the lawsuit is officially dropped.The Risk Case (Why it is NOT a good investment): There is a clear resistance wall at $1.45. If the CLARITY Act fails or is delayed past May (due to midterm election dynamics), the "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic could reverse. If the price fails to break $1.45 and loses support at $1.33, a drop back to $1.15 is technically possible .

Verdict: XRP is a speculative buy for traders looking for a volatility spike. It is a hold for current investors. For new investors, it is only a good investment if you believe in regulatory clarity within the next 30 days. Technically, waiting for a confirmed break above $1.55 (to avoid the fakeout) is safer than buying at $1.43.

FAQ

Q: Will XRP go up if the CLARITY Act passes?

A: Yes, historically. Analysts predict that if the CLARITY Act passes, signaling that XRP is a commodity, it would remove the regulatory overhang. This could trigger a surge in institutional buying, pushing the price from the current $1.43 range to test the $1.80 - $2.00 resistance levels quickly.

Q: Why is XRP dropping when Bitcoin is going up?

A: XRP has specific supply dynamics. Unlike Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply issuance, XRP faces periodic sell-pressure from Ripple's treasury wallets used to fund ODL (liquidity) services. Additionally, the $1.45 "break-even" wall causes XRP to drop relative to BTC when short-term traders exit.

Q: Is a volatility spike imminent for XRP?

A: Yes. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are squeezing. The price is stuck between support at $1.33 and resistance at $1.45. Historically, when XRP volume surges 23% in a week (as it did on April 21), it precedes a violent move. The direction depends on whether the $1.45 resistance breaks.

Q: What is the XRP ETF netflow status?

A: As of late April 2026, XRP ETFs are seeing positive netflows. The US ETFs recorded a single week inflow of $119.6 million in mid-April. Cumulative inflows are strong at $12.8 billion, indicating that institutions are accumulating during this dip, which is a long-term bullish signal for price stabilization.

Q: Is XRP a good investment for beginners?

A: XRP is less volatile than "meme coins" but more volatile than Bitcoin. For beginners, it is a moderate-risk investment. Its value is tied to real utility (bank payments). However, beginners should wait to see if the price can close a weekly candle above $1.55 before entering, to avoid buying into the current resistance wall.

Disclaimer: None of the information in this article constitutes, or is intended to constitute, investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research.

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